The arrival of a long predicted pandemic has sent shockwaves around the world that have interrupted international patterns of trade, business and even social interaction to a degree that was unimaginable to most of us just a few months ago. The problems with international rivalries, environmental degradation, climate change and social inequality were becoming ever more difficult to ignore even before COVID-19 emerged and they too have not gotten any easier since. Our spotty success in dealing with the pandemic has raised warning flags suggesting that smaller and more subtle incremental problems that accumulate impacts over a longer time horizon are really going to tax our capacity to deal with them. For example, mounting impacts from global climate change demand international collaboration as we develop and transition to a de-carbonised energy system as soon as possible but resistance to any change continues from established interests seeking to protect the status quo.

In this case though the global impact of this disease has, or perhaps is working up to putting the status quo distinctly off balance. The emerging consensus now is that it seems highly unlikely that a full recovery to the pre-pandemic state is likely to occur anytime soon, if ever. There are of course numerous tragedies affecting human lives everywhere as a direct consequence of the disease and our responses to it, and I do not mean to minimize them at all, but this ‘event’ is not an entirely bad thing. It is also giving us – humanity- a wake up call and an opportunity to rebuild our lives, our societies and our economies to a new, more sustainable design. It is, as alluded to below, a crisis that we cannot afford to let go to waste.

It is not just that continuing on our current course with complete disregard to future impacts will commit us to increasingly severe consequences. Even finding a perspective on what is happening that we can agree on remains an issue as some of the strongest advocates for carrying on as we are remain in positions of authority. A feature of our modern communications technologies is that credibility extends to all sides of the “debate”, itself leading to growing polarization as different arguments play out in light of various beliefs, knowledge, loyalties and other “entanglements”. It is affecting many societies as doubts about not just of the inherent fairness of our legal, economic and social systems but even of our ability to reach outcomes that work and work equitably for more than just the “chosen few” grow and spread. It is for example undeniably obvious that most countries direct the vast majority of the economic benefits generated by the whole society to a few well connected corporate entities and their owners at the expense of majorities just about everywhere.

This is widely known and acknowledged as a problem but little public progress is being made by those advocating for alternatives- they are simply just too easily drowned out and/or discredited in mass media, itself very powerful and well financed by special, though often undeclared, interests. Alternative voices are making headway by way of non-traditional media: blogs, podcasts, social media etc and a diverse range of facts, alternative facts and opinion is being heard even in tightly controlled societies. Whether this turns out to be a good thing or not remains to be seen, but the power(s) of information control and propaganda have been in play for a long time, just never quite like they are now.

Judging from the way economies are faltering, and politics are becoming polarized to the point of generalized dysfunction and even absurdity, people and nations are becoming more vocal on protecting their own perceived self- interests to the exclusion of most, if not all, others. Even including those that are widely shared, it appears we are losing touch with our common interests on many levels. Perhaps the realization that we cannot continue as we have, because those industries and ways of doing things that have delivered such enviable prosperity in the recent past are now promising only chaos, division and conflict, possibly verging on the apocalyptic, is sinking in and fear is asserting its own poisonous grip.

Some scenarios give us 10 years to get on a new path to avoid the worst effects of global climate change, others give us a few more years. And yet even here, the only refrain remaining consistent over the past 8 years are voices committed to the “Proven System” whether it is more politicians leveraging events for advantage as they simply continue to play the games they play or more businesses advocating for more investment, lower interest rates and less regulation and taxation so the world’s economic drivers can again “work their magic”. This perhaps because so few established interests can imagine anything else to replace our current tech and economic systems but it all smacks of a bit of desperation. The pandemic has changed the outlook for our future, upending economic conventions and expectations and sowing confusion on what is coming next. There is not a lot that seems to be coming easily to anyone at this point and few of the efforts of central authorities are having their planned impact anymore, overwhelmed as they are by unintended consequences.

In short, we are, one way or another, apparently coming to the end of an era that has been characterized by the beneficial use of fossil fuels and are now being driven, in many cases kicking and screaming, to take a new course. Two possibilities present themselves- one carrying on with building walls to further national and/or tribal isolation or another that has more groups working together irrespective of borders or barriers. In the former inequality in its many forms can but only grow which will inevitably lead back to escalating chaos and decline whereas the other, and I would say “more hopeful” option will see multiple “societal” experiments sharing best practices for achieving optimal outcomes. I expect the latter will also see our centralized socioeconomic (including political) structures and networks increasingly complemented by more distributed models of authority offering more diverse and balanced channels allowing for a wider range of opinion, influence and shared economic benefits, but that is for the future to tell.

Maybe- just maybe- some of our leading lights will grow up and stop acting like children when it comes to things like sovereignty. It simply does not matter and yet the powers that be threaten us all with annihilation unless we acknowledge their divine right(s) of ownership and/or command. We won’t stand for it from kids when it comes to shared toys- why do we from political leaders?